AbCellera Biologics Inc. logo ABCL - AbCellera Biologics Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $8.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $9.00
LOW: $7.00
MEDIAN: $8.00
CONSENSUS: $8.00
DOWNSIDE: 13.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 0.7% below fair value
Current Price $9.34
Bear Case $8.07 13.6% downside ($8.07 - $9.34) / $9.34 = -13.6% $0.46 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $9.41 0.7% upside ($9.41 - $9.34) / $9.34 = 0.7% $0.46 × 21x P/E
Bull Case $10.76 15.2% upside ($10.76 - $9.34) / $9.34 = 15.2% $0.46 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
0.46$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $9.41 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples