Ameris Bancorp logo ABCB - Ameris Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 10
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $91.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $94.00
LOW: $89.00
MEDIAN: $91.00
CONSENSUS: $91.25
UPSIDE: 7.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.6% above fair value
Current Price $84.69
Bear Case $52.90 37.5% downside ($52.90 - $84.69) / $84.69 = -37.5% ROTCE 10.3% → 1.15x TBV
Fair Value $81.76 3.5% downside ($81.76 - $84.69) / $84.69 = -3.5% ROTCE 13.7% → 1.78x TBV
Bull Case $99.07 17.0% upside ($99.07 - $84.69) / $84.69 = 17.0% ROTCE 15.8% → 2.15x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.7%
9.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.25 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $81.76 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $23.92 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly