AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes AAON, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag AAON as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is AAON, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for AAON is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value AAON?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from AAON's most recent reported fundamentals.

AAON - AAON, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $119.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 242.7% above fair value

Current Price $134.60

Bear Case $28.81 78.6% downside ($28.81 - $134.60) / $134.60 = -78.6% $1.29 × 14x + net cash

Fair Value $39.28 70.8% downside ($39.28 - $134.60) / $134.60 = -70.8% $1.29 × 18x + net cash

Bull Case $49.75 63.0% downside ($49.75 - $134.60) / $134.60 = -63.0% $1.29 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

1.29$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.29)

Implied Market Multiple 104.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $119.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.28 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 15.1x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $119.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 84% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing