Acadian Asset Management logo AAMI - Acadian Asset Management

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $62.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $66.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $60.00
CONSENSUS: $62.00
DOWNSIDE: 15.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 11.3% above fair value
Current Price $73.58
Bear Case $46.26 37.1% downside ($46.26 - $73.58) / $73.58 = -37.1% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.10x TBV
Fair Value $66.09 10.2% downside ($66.09 - $73.58) / $73.58 = -10.2% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $85.92 16.8% upside ($85.92 - $73.58) / $73.58 = 16.8% ROTCE 30.0% → 3.41x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

132.0%
11.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (132.0%) vs. cost of equity (11.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 43.26x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 132.0% vs. 11.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $1.70 tangible book, implying $66.09 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly