ZD
Ziff Davis, Inc.
$55.73
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.2% below fair value
You pay
$55.73
Bear
$96.76
Fair
$121.58
Bull
$144.25
Bear
$96.76
+73.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$121.58
+118.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$144.25
+158.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
8.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.6%
vs 7.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$61.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
98%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $121.58 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 95% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $61.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 98% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions