WSM
Williams-Sonoma, Inc.
$218.94
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 54.8% above fair value
You pay
$218.94
Bear
$123.76
Fair
$141.44
Bull
$159.12
Bear
$123.76
-43.5%
$8.84 × 14x P/E
Fair
$141.44
-35.4%
$8.84 × 16x P/E
Bull
$159.12
-27.3%
$8.84 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
8.84$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (56 analysts)
$246.31
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.84, the base-case value is $141.44 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $246.31 (from 56 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples