WBD
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.
$30.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 323.8% above fair value
You pay
$30.84
Bear
$7.28
Fair
$7.28
Bull
$8.48
Bear
$7.28
-76.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$7.28
-76.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$8.48
-72.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
26.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.4%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$31.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
77%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.28 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $31.00 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 77% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions