WAFD WaFd, Inc.
$33.85
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 1.1% below fair value

You pay $33.85
Bear $18.39
Fair $34.23
Bull $43.73
Bear $18.39 -45.7% ROTCE 6.5% → 0.52x TBV
Fair $34.23 +1.1% ROTCE 8.7% → 0.97x TBV
Bull $43.73 +29.2% ROTCE 10.0% → 1.24x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.7%
8.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.96x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (11 analysts) $38.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 10%

Summary

With ROTCE of 8.7% vs. 8.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.97x on $35.12 tangible book, implying $34.23 per share. DDM cross-check: $17.79.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (8.7%) is below the minimum investors require (8.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $17.79 (48% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly