WAFD
WaFd, Inc.
$33.85
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.1% below fair value
You pay
$33.85
Bear
$18.39
Fair
$34.23
Bull
$43.73
Bear
$18.39
-45.7%
ROTCE 6.5% → 0.52x TBV
Fair
$34.23
+1.1%
ROTCE 8.7% → 0.97x TBV
Bull
$43.73
+29.2%
ROTCE 10.0% → 1.24x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
8.7%
8.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.96x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$38.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
With ROTCE of 8.7% vs. 8.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.97x on $35.12 tangible book, implying $34.23 per share. DDM cross-check: $17.79.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (8.7%) is below the minimum investors require (8.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $17.79 (48% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly