VSECU
VSE Corporation
$52.43
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.8% below fair value
You pay
$52.43
Bear
$42.28
Fair
$52.85
Bull
$63.42
Bear
$42.28
-19.4%
$3.52 × 12x P/E
Fair
$52.85
+0.8%
$3.52 × 15x P/E
Bull
$63.42
+21.0%
$3.52 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.9x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.52, the base-case value is $52.85 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 40%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples