VSCO
Victoria's Secret & Co.
$91.51
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 216.1% above fair value
You pay
$91.51
Bear
$23.16
Fair
$28.95
Bull
$34.74
Bear
$23.16
-74.7%
$1.93 × 12x P/E
Fair
$28.95
-68.4%
$1.93 × 15x P/E
Bull
$34.74
-62.0%
$1.93 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.93$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
47.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$57.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.93, the base-case value is $28.95 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $57.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples