ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
$515.04
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.8% below fair value
You pay
$515.04
Bear
$535.25
Fair
$611.71
Bull
$688.18
Bear
$535.25
+3.9%
$25.99 × 19x P/E
Fair
$611.71
+18.8%
$25.99 × 22x P/E
Bull
$688.18
+33.6%
$25.99 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $727.36 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $611.71 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples