ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
$609.24
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.9% above fair value
You pay
$609.24
Bear
$485.23
Fair
$554.55
Bull
$623.87
Bear
$485.23
-20.4%
$25.64 × 19x P/E
Fair
$554.55
-9.0%
$25.64 × 22x P/E
Bull
$623.87
+2.4%
$25.64 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.6x
25.64$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (47 analysts)
$624.93
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $25.64, the base-case value is $554.55 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples