ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
$501.52
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.6% below fair value
You pay
$501.52
Bear
$513.71
Fair
$587.10
Bull
$660.49
Bear
$513.71
+2.4%
$26.00 × 19x P/E
Fair
$587.10
+17.1%
$26.00 × 22x P/E
Bull
$660.49
+31.7%
$26.00 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $645.00 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $587.10 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples