TXRH
Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
$159.75
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.8% below fair value
You pay
$159.75
Bear
$164.70
Fair
$196.72
Bull
$228.75
Bear
$164.70
+3.1%
$6.10 × 27x P/E
Fair
$196.72
+23.1%
$6.10 × 32x P/E
Bull
$228.75
+43.2%
$6.10 × 38x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
32.2x
6.1$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$213.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
Applying a 32x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.10, the base-case value is $196.72 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples