TXRH
Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
$189.86
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.2% below fair value
You pay
$189.86
Bear
$164.20
Fair
$196.14
Bull
$228.06
Bear
$164.20
-13.5%
$6.12 × 27x P/E
Fair
$196.14
+3.3%
$6.12 × 32x P/E
Bull
$228.06
+20.1%
$6.12 × 38x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $193.00 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $196.14 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples