TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
$177.57
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 9.3% below fair value

You pay $177.57
Bear $163.82
Fair $195.67
Bull $227.52
Bear $163.82 -7.7% $6.12 × 27x P/E
Fair $195.67 +10.2% $6.12 × 32x P/E
Bull $227.52 +28.1% $6.12 × 38x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 29.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $191.46 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $195.67 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples