TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
$402.03
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 110.3% above fair value
You pay
$402.03
Bear
$99.25
Fair
$191.16
Bull
$313.70
Bear
$99.25
-75.3%
FCF $340M × 8x
Fair
$191.16
-52.5%
FCF $486M × 11x
Bull
$313.70
-22.0%
FCF $632M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
56.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $639.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $191.16 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -90%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $639.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential