TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
$344.31
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 334.3% above fair value
You pay
$344.31
Bear
$41.16
Fair
$79.28
Bull
$130.11
Bear
$41.16
-88.0%
FCF $341M × 8x
Fair
$79.28
-77.0%
FCF $487M × 11x
Bull
$130.11
-62.2%
FCF $633M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
48.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$639.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
88%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $79.28 per share. Range: $41.16 (bear) to $130.11 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -88%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $639.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential