TMUS
T-Mobile US, Inc.
$148.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.4% below fair value
You pay
$148.58
Bear
$122.86
Fair
$177.67
Bull
$227.69
Bear
$122.86
-17.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$177.67
+19.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$227.69
+53.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
15.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.8%
vs 7.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (54 analysts)
$231.10
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $177.67 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions