TMUS
T-Mobile US, Inc.
$191.47
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.9% below fair value
You pay
$191.47
Bear
$138.56
Fair
$201.42
Bull
$258.94
Bear
$138.56
-27.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$201.42
+5.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$258.94
+35.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
18.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $249.42 from 54 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $201.42 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $249.42 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions