TG
Tredegar Corporation
$7.82
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.4% below fair value
You pay
$7.82
Bear
$11.67
Fair
$14.59
Bull
$17.51
Bear
$11.67
+49.2%
$0.97 × 12x P/E
Fair
$14.59
+86.5%
$0.97 × 15x P/E
Bull
$17.51
+123.9%
$0.97 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.0x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.97, the base-case value is $14.59 per share. DDM cross-check: $11.68.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples