TG Tredegar Corporation
$7.80
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 45.8% below fair value

You pay $7.80
Bear $11.52
Fair $14.40
Bull $17.28
Bear $11.52 +47.7% $0.96 × 12x P/E
Fair $14.40 +84.6% $0.96 × 15x P/E
Bull $17.28 +121.5% $0.96 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.96$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.1x

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.96, the base-case value is $14.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $11.68.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples