TDW
Tidewater Inc.
$74.87
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 96.0% above fair value
You pay
$74.87
Bear
$20.94
Fair
$38.19
Bull
$59.89
Bear
$20.94
-72.0%
FCF $57M × 10x
Fair
$38.19
-49.0%
FCF $73M × 13x
Bull
$59.89
-20.0%
FCF $90M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
52.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $101.50 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.19 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -88%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $101.50 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 83% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential