TDW
Tidewater Inc.
$84.70
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 95.8% above fair value
You pay
$84.70
Bear
$24.97
Fair
$43.25
Bull
$66.23
Bear
$24.97
-70.5%
FCF $134M × 10x
Fair
$43.25
-48.9%
FCF $173M × 13x
Bull
$66.23
-21.8%
FCF $212M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$105.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $43.25 per share. Range: $24.97 (bear) to $66.23 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -70%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $105.50 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential