TAP
Molson Coors Beverage Company
$38.93
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.1% below fair value
You pay
$38.93
Bear
$54.93
Fair
$54.93
Bull
$60.58
Bear
$54.93
+41.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$54.93
+41.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$60.58
+55.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
10.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.0%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$42.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $54.93 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $42.80 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions