TAP
Molson Coors Beverage Company
$39.41
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 28.4% below fair value
You pay
$39.41
Bear
$55.07
Fair
$55.07
Bull
$60.74
Bear
$55.07
+39.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$55.07
+39.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$60.74
+54.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
10.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.1%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$41.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $55.07 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $41.80 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions