TAP
Molson Coors Beverage Company
$39.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.1% below fair value
You pay
$39.17
Bear
$43.55
Fair
$43.55
Bull
$48.48
Bear
$43.55
+11.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$43.55
+11.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$48.48
+23.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.3%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.56 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.55 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions