STBA
S&T Bancorp, Inc.
$49.24
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.5% below fair value
You pay
$49.24
Bear
$32.83
Fair
$52.10
Bull
$63.67
Bear
$32.83
-33.3%
ROTCE 9.3% → 1.06x TBV
Fair
$52.10
+5.8%
ROTCE 12.3% → 1.69x TBV
Bull
$63.67
+29.3%
ROTCE 14.2% → 2.06x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
12.3%
8.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$53.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
With ROTCE of 12.3% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.69x on $30.86 tangible book, implying $52.10 per share. DDM cross-check: $33.22.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $33.22 (36% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly