SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A.
$560.11
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.8% above fair value
You pay
$560.11
Bear
$332.81
Fair
$519.42
Bull
$735.75
Bear
$332.81
-40.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$519.42
-7.3%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$735.75
+31.4%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
33.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.0%
vs 16.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (53 analysts)
$602.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $519.42 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1632 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions