SMPL
The Simply Good Foods Company
$11.19
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 51.0% below fair value
You pay
$11.19
Bear
$18.82
Fair
$22.85
Bull
$26.88
Bear
$18.82
+68.2%
$1.02 × 18x P/E
Fair
$22.85
+104.2%
$1.02 × 22x P/E
Bull
$26.88
+140.2%
$1.02 × 26x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.4x
1.02$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$14.29
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.02, the base-case value is $22.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $14.29 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples