SMBK
SmartFinancial, Inc.
$50.01
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.4% above fair value
You pay
$50.01
Bear
$28.54
Fair
$46.99
Bull
$58.07
Bear
$28.54
-42.9%
ROTCE 8.3% → 1.03x TBV
Fair
$46.99
-6.0%
ROTCE 11.0% → 1.70x TBV
Bull
$58.07
+16.1%
ROTCE 12.7% → 2.10x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.87x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.99 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $10.46 (77% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly