SKX
Skechers U.S.A., Inc.
$63.13
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.0% below fair value
You pay
$63.13
Bear
$71.78
Fair
$82.03
Bull
$92.29
Bear
$71.78
+13.7%
$4.16 × 18x P/E
Fair
$82.03
+29.9%
$4.16 × 21x P/E
Bull
$92.29
+46.2%
$4.16 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.00 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $82.03 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples