SHAK
Shake Shack Inc.
$69.99
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.4% below fair value
You pay
$69.99
Bear
$40.58
Fair
$91.39
Bull
$158.60
Bear
$40.58
-42.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$91.39
+30.6%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$158.60
+126.6%
29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
22.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
37.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.4%
vs 22.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$79.76
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 23% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $91.39 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 43% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions