SGI
Somnigroup International Inc
$64.68
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 119.7% above fair value
You pay
$64.68
Bear
$25.76
Fair
$29.44
Bull
$33.12
Bear
$25.76
-60.2%
$1.84 × 14x P/E
Fair
$29.44
-54.5%
$1.84 × 16x P/E
Bull
$33.12
-48.8%
$1.84 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.84$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
35.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$92.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
68%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.84, the base-case value is $29.44 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $92.83 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples