SEZL
Sezzle Inc.
$102.80
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 85.1% above fair value
You pay
$102.80
Bear
$38.89
Fair
$55.54
Bull
$72.20
Bear
$38.89
-62.2%
ROTCE 20.0% → 1.60x TBV
Fair
$55.54
-46.0%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$72.20
-29.8%
ROTCE 30.0% → 2.60x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (80.0%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
20.76x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.54 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $85.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly