SEZL
Sezzle Inc.
$176.28
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 167.1% above fair value
You pay
$176.28
Bear
$46.21
Fair
$66.01
Bull
$85.81
Bear
$46.21
-73.8%
ROTCE 20.0% → 1.60x TBV
Fair
$66.01
-62.6%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$85.81
-51.3%
ROTCE 30.0% → 2.60x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (80.0%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
35.61x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $137.33 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $66.01 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $137.33 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly