SEZL
Sezzle Inc.
$118.35
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1038.3% above fair value
You pay
$118.35
Bear
$7.92
Fair
$10.40
Bull
$12.87
Bear
$7.92
-93.3%
ROTCE 20.0% → 1.60x TBV
Fair
$10.40
-91.2%
ROTCE 25.0% → 2.10x TBV
Bull
$12.87
-89.1%
ROTCE 30.0% → 2.60x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
80.0%
14.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (80.0%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
23.91x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$168.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
94%
Summary
With ROTCE of 80.0% vs. 14.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.10x on $4.95 tangible book, implying $10.40 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $168.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly