SDPNF
SD Guthrie Berhad
$1.49
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.8% below fair value
You pay
$1.49
Bear
$1.34
Fair
$1.63
Bull
$1.92
Bear
$1.34
-9.7%
$0.09 × 15x P/E
Fair
$1.63
+9.7%
$0.09 × 19x P/E
Bull
$1.92
+29.0%
$0.09 × 22x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
18.5x
0.09$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.9x
Summary
Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.09, the base-case value is $1.63 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 113% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from MYR into USD using USDMYR at 0.2448 USD per MYR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples