RYN
Rayonier Inc.
$21.58
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.6% below fair value
You pay
$21.58
Bear
$57.93
Fair
$70.88
Bull
$83.84
Bear
$57.93
+168.4%
$3.81 FFO × 24x
Fair
$70.88
+228.5%
$3.81 FFO × 30x
Bull
$83.84
+288.5%
$3.81 FFO × 36x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.81) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
5.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.25 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.88 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $19.61 (77% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.25 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 241% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify