RYN
Rayonier Inc.
$20.36
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 78.0% below fair value
You pay
$20.36
Bear
$75.56
Fair
$92.73
Bull
$109.91
Bear
$75.56
+271.1%
$3.81 FFO × 24x
Fair
$92.73
+355.5%
$3.81 FFO × 30x
Bull
$109.91
+439.8%
$3.81 FFO × 36x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.81) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
5.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.20 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.73 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 10.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.20 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 321% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify