RSI Rush Street Interactive, Inc.
$26.36
Platform & Compounding FCF 85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 40.8% below fair value

You pay $26.36
Bear $26.54
Fair $44.55
Bull $66.74
Bear $26.54 +0.7% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair $44.55 +69.0% 19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull $66.74 +153.2% 25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

19.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 21.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.6% vs 19.5% base

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (13 analysts) $35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 27%

Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $44.55 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 79% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions