RPAY
Repay Holdings Corporation
$3.49
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current FCF × Depressed Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.1% above fair value
You pay
$3.49
Bear
$0.61
Fair
$3.17
Bull
$5.73
Bear
$0.61
-82.6%
FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple
Fair
$3.17
-9.2%
Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple
Bull
$5.73
+64.3%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
6.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current FCF × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.17 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($3.65) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $5.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case