RPAY
Repay Holdings Corporation
$3.85
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 84.8% below fair value
You pay
$3.85
Bear
$14.60
Fair
$25.33
Bull
$37.47
Bear
$14.60
+278.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$25.33
+557.1%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$37.47
+871.9%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
7.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-3.3%
vs 15.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$4.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
442%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $25.33 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $4.67 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 442% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions