REPX
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.
$38.60
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.7% above fair value
You pay
$38.60
Bear
$11.33
Fair
$32.80
Bull
$61.42
Bear
$11.33
-70.6%
FCF $60M × 8x
Fair
$32.80
-15.0%
FCF $86M × 11x
Bull
$61.42
+59.1%
FCF $112M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.5x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $32.80 per share. Range: $11.33 (bear) to $61.42 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -71%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential