REPX
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.
$48.94
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.0% above fair value
You pay
$48.94
Bear
$17.70
Fair
$45.30
Bull
$82.11
Bear
$17.70
-63.8%
FCF $78M × 8x
Fair
$45.30
-7.4%
FCF $111M × 11x
Bull
$82.11
+67.8%
FCF $144M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.7x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $45.30 per share. Range: $17.70 (bear) to $82.11 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential