REPX
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.
$33.20
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.2% above fair value
You pay
$33.20
Bear
$11.33
Fair
$32.80
Bull
$61.42
Bear
$11.33
-65.9%
FCF $60M × 8x
Fair
$32.80
-1.2%
FCF $86M × 11x
Bull
$61.42
+85.0%
FCF $112M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.1x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $32.80 per share. Range: $11.33 (bear) to $61.42 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($10.93) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential