AlphaMadera

REG Regency Centers Corporation

$76.06

Real Estate Investment Trust 85%

P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 17.7% below fair value

You pay $76.06

Bear $75.04

Fair $92.38

Bull $109.73

Bear $75.04 -1.3% $5.11 FFO × 16x

Fair $92.38 +21.5% $5.11 FFO × 20x

Bull $109.73 +44.3% $5.11 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

19.5x

FFO per Share

5.11$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.11) × retail P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 14.9x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (33 analysts) $86.63

Divergence from AlphaVal 7%

Summary

At $5.11 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $92.38 per share. Dividend yield: 4.0%. DDM cross-check: $75.60.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify