REG
Regency Centers Corporation
$73.24
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.1% below fair value
You pay
$73.24
Bear
$73.56
Fair
$90.53
Bull
$107.50
Bear
$73.56
+0.4%
$4.97 FFO × 16x
Fair
$90.53
+23.6%
$4.97 FFO × 20x
Bull
$107.50
+46.8%
$4.97 FFO × 23x
Adjust Assumptions
19.5x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($4.97) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
14.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$84.15
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
At $4.97 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $90.53 per share. Dividend yield: 4.1%. DDM cross-check: $75.60.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify