QXO
QXO, Inc.
$13.54
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 80.1% above fair value
You pay
$13.54
Bear
$0.44
Fair
$7.52
Bull
$16.43
Bear
$0.44
-96.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$7.52
-44.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$16.43
+21.3%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
152.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
38.7%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $30.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions