QNST
QuinStreet, Inc.
$15.73
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 66.0% below fair value
You pay
$15.73
Bear
$33.47
Fair
$46.27
Bull
$59.22
Bear
$33.47
+112.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$46.27
+194.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$59.22
+276.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
7.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-4.4%
vs 11.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$22.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
110%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $46.27 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 46% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $22.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 110% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions