PTON
Peloton Interactive, Inc.
$5.12
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 75.0% above fair value
You pay
$5.12
Bear
$2.34
Fair
$2.93
Bull
$3.51
Bear
$2.34
-54.3%
$0.13 × 18x P/E
Fair
$2.93
-42.9%
$0.13 × 22x P/E
Bull
$3.51
-31.4%
$0.13 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
0.13$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
39.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (40 analysts)
$8.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.13, the base-case value is $2.93 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 40 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples