PPTA
Perpetua Resources Corp.
$17.39
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 953.9% above fair value
You pay
$17.39
Bear
$1.10
Fair
$1.65
Bull
$2.20
Bear
$1.10
-93.7%
EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair
$1.65
-90.5%
Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull
$2.20
-87.3%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
79.0x
Summary
Stock is 53% below 52-week high. Using current EPS at a 8x depressed multiple, base-case value is $1.65. Wide scenario range: $1.10–$2.20.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case