PODD
Insulet Corp.
$142.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.2% below fair value
You pay
$142.64
Bear
$111.07
Fair
$181.01
Bull
$260.34
Bear
$111.07
-22.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$181.01
+26.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$260.34
+82.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
26.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.7%
vs 15.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (50 analysts)
$182.78
Divergence from AlphaVal
1%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $181.01 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions