PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
$19.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 78.9% below fair value
You pay
$19.09
Bear
$52.12
Fair
$90.55
Bull
$138.50
Bear
$52.12
+173.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$90.55
+374.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$138.50
+625.7%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
6.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-4.7%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$28.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
220%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $90.55 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 66% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.33 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 220% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions