PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
$16.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 82.7% below fair value
You pay
$16.20
Bear
$53.72
Fair
$93.88
Bull
$144.00
Bear
$53.72
+231.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$93.88
+479.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$144.00
+788.6%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
4.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-11.4%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $93.88 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $28.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 294% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions