PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
$12.76
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 85.0% below fair value
You pay
$12.76
Bear
$44.41
Fair
$85.17
Bull
$136.03
Bear
$44.41
+248.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$85.17
+567.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$136.03
+966.1%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
7.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.25 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $85.17 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $31.25 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 216% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions