OSCR
Oscar Health, Inc.
$30.54
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 77.5% below fair value
You pay
$30.54
Bear
$80.61
Fair
$135.91
Bull
$204.92
Bear
$80.61
+163.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$135.91
+345.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$204.92
+571.0%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
4.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-11.8%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.20 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $135.91 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $24.20 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 577% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions