OSCR
Oscar Health, Inc.
$22.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 83.2% below fair value
You pay
$22.64
Bear
$79.96
Fair
$134.82
Bull
$203.28
Bear
$79.96
+253.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$134.82
+495.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$203.28
+797.9%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
2.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.75 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $134.82 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $18.75 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 774% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions