OSCR
Oscar Health, Inc.
$33.10
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 80.1% below fair value
You pay
$33.10
Bear
$98.34
Fair
$165.95
Bull
$250.30
Bear
$98.34
+197.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$165.95
+401.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$250.30
+656.2%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
5.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-9.7%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$34.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
388%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $165.95 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 388% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions