OFLX
Omega Flex, Inc.
$25.64
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.0% below fair value
You pay
$25.64
Bear
$24.72
Fair
$30.90
Bull
$37.08
Bear
$24.72
-3.6%
$2.06 × 12x P/E
Fair
$30.90
+20.5%
$2.06 × 15x P/E
Bull
$37.08
+44.6%
$2.06 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.06$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.4x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.06, the base-case value is $30.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $23.95.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 40%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 93% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $23.95 (below our primary estimate by 22%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples