NBTB
NBT Bancorp Inc.
$51.43
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.4% below fair value
You pay
$51.43
Bear
$46.42
Fair
$73.89
Bull
$90.36
Bear
$46.42
-9.7%
ROTCE 9.2% → 1.74x TBV
Fair
$73.89
+43.7%
ROTCE 12.2% → 2.77x TBV
Bull
$90.36
+75.7%
ROTCE 14.0% → 3.39x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
12.2%
7.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.93x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$56.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Summary
With ROTCE of 12.2% vs. 7.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.77x on $26.63 tangible book, implying $73.89 per share. DDM cross-check: $135.44.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $135.44 (83% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $56.67 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly