NBTB
NBT Bancorp Inc.
$45.93
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.3% below fair value
You pay
$45.93
Bear
$43.27
Fair
$68.86
Bull
$84.22
Bear
$43.27
-5.8%
ROTCE 9.2% → 1.76x TBV
Fair
$68.86
+49.9%
ROTCE 12.2% → 2.80x TBV
Bull
$84.22
+83.4%
ROTCE 14.0% → 3.42x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.72x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.86 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $130.19 (75% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $46.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly