NBIS Nebius Group N.V.
$169.69
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 179.6% above fair value

You pay $169.69
Bear $50.79
Fair $60.68
Bull $70.54
Bear $50.79 -70.1% $0.89 × 18x P/E
Fair $60.68 -64.2% $0.89 × 22x P/E
Bull $70.54 -58.4% $0.89 × 25x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 190.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $226.86 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $60.68 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 709%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $226.86 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples