NBIS
Nebius Group N.V.
$153.27
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1891.3% above fair value
You pay
$153.27
Bear
$6.44
Fair
$7.70
Bull
$8.95
Bear
$6.44
-95.8%
$0.36 × 18x P/E
Fair
$7.70
-95.0%
$0.36 × 22x P/E
Bull
$8.95
-94.2%
$0.36 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
0.36$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
428.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$288.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.36, the base-case value is $7.70 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 225%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $288.67 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples