MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc.
$140.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 106.3% above fair value
You pay
$140.09
Bear
$67.92
Fair
$67.92
Bull
$78.20
Bear
$67.92
-51.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$67.92
-51.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$78.20
-44.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
19.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.3%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (48 analysts)
$154.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $67.92 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $154.33 (from 48 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions