MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc.
$147.86
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 134.5% above fair value
You pay
$147.86
Bear
$63.04
Fair
$63.04
Bull
$83.61
Bear
$63.04
-57.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$63.04
-57.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$83.61
-43.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
28.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.5%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $158.80 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $63.04 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $158.80 (from 48 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions