MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc.
$127.62
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 82.8% above fair value
You pay
$127.62
Bear
$56.70
Fair
$69.81
Bull
$93.63
Bear
$56.70
-55.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$69.81
-45.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$93.63
-26.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
25.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $169.50 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $69.81 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $169.50 (from 48 analysts). Our estimate is 84% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions