MLNK
MeridianLink, Inc.
$20.01
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.2% above fair value
You pay
$20.01
Bear
$9.85
Fair
$19.40
Bull
$29.20
Bear
$9.85
-50.8%
9% rev growth, 20% terminal margin
Fair
$19.40
-3.1%
16% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Bull
$29.20
+45.9%
20% rev growth, 30% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
16.0%
26.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (16%) × margin expansion to 26%
Terminal Value % of EV
49%
Implied Market Multiple
5.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$22.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Projecting 16% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 34% to 26% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $19.40 per share.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep