MLNK
MeridianLink, Inc.
$20.01
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.3% above fair value
You pay
$20.01
Bear
$7.45
Fair
$15.97
Bull
$24.73
Bear
$7.45
-62.8%
9% rev growth, 16% terminal margin
Fair
$15.97
-20.2%
16% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Bull
$24.73
+23.6%
20% rev growth, 24% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (16%) × margin expansion to 21%
Terminal Value % of EV
51%
Implied Market Multiple
5.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.25 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.97 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $22.25 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep