MAX
MediaAlpha, Inc.
$8.49
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.6% above fair value
You pay
$8.49
Bear
$6.69
Fair
$8.35
Bull
$10.03
Bear
$6.69
-21.2%
$0.40 × 15x P/E
Fair
$8.35
-1.6%
$0.40 × 19x P/E
Bull
$10.03
+18.1%
$0.40 × 23x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.25 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.35 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 1478% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.25 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples