MAX
MediaAlpha, Inc.
$11.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.2% below fair value
You pay
$11.88
Bear
$16.00
Fair
$24.87
Bull
$34.35
Bear
$16.00
+34.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$24.87
+109.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$34.35
+189.1%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
14.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.5%
vs 13.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$13.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
86%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $24.87 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 118% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.38 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 86% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions