MAX
MediaAlpha, Inc.
$14.12
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 69.3% above fair value
You pay
$14.12
Bear
$6.68
Fair
$8.34
Bull
$10.01
Bear
$6.68
-52.7%
$0.40 × 15x P/E
Fair
$8.34
-40.9%
$0.40 × 19x P/E
Bull
$10.01
-29.1%
$0.40 × 23x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
35.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.17 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.34 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 1478% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.17 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples