MATX
Matson, Inc.
$181.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.9% below fair value
You pay
$181.84
Bear
$165.73
Fair
$206.39
Bull
$243.16
Bear
$165.73
-8.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$206.39
+13.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$243.16
+33.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
13.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $190.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $206.39 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions