MATX
Matson, Inc.
$219.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.8% below fair value
You pay
$219.19
Bear
$182.07
Fair
$227.87
Bull
$269.45
Bear
$182.07
-16.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$227.87
+4.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$269.45
+22.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
15.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.8%
vs 7.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $172.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $227.87 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $172.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions