MATX
Matson, Inc.
$234.99
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.8% above fair value
You pay
$234.99
Bear
$176.85
Fair
$220.00
Bull
$259.01
Bear
$176.85
-24.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$220.00
-6.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$259.01
+10.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
16.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.8%
vs 7.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$260.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $220.00 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions