MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
$334.69
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 267.7% above fair value
You pay
$334.69
Bear
$86.50
Fair
$91.01
Bull
$102.99
Bear
$86.50
-74.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$91.01
-72.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$102.99
-69.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
34.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.1%
vs 3.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$386.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
76%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $91.01 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $386.71 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions