MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
$383.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 118.2% above fair value
You pay
$383.52
Bear
$165.98
Fair
$175.77
Bull
$203.76
Bear
$165.98
-56.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$175.77
-54.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$203.76
-46.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
48.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.8%
vs 3.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $393.50 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $175.77 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $393.50 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions