MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
$369.15
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 110.4% above fair value
You pay
$369.15
Bear
$162.96
Fair
$175.49
Bull
$204.17
Bear
$162.96
-55.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$175.49
-52.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$204.17
-44.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
46.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $390.85 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $175.49 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $390.85 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions