MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
$394.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 178.1% above fair value
You pay
$394.75
Bear
$102.24
Fair
$141.94
Bull
$178.23
Bear
$102.24
-74.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$141.94
-64.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$178.23
-54.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
39.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.0%
vs 7.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$389.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
64%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $141.94 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $389.25 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions