MAC
The Macerich Company
$24.10
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 143.1% above fair value
You pay
$24.10
Bear
$8.12
Fair
$9.91
Bull
$11.70
Bear
$8.12
-66.3%
$0.58 FFO × 12x
Fair
$9.91
-58.9%
$0.58 FFO × 15x
Bull
$11.70
-51.4%
$0.58 FFO × 18x
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($0.58) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
41.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (35 analysts)
$25.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
62%
Summary
At $0.58 FFO/share with a 15x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $9.91 per share. Dividend yield: 2.8%. DDM cross-check: $12.76.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.76 (29% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.83 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify