LPG Dorian LPG Ltd.
$39.56
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 41.6% below fair value

You pay $39.56
Bear $54.21
Fair $67.77
Bull $81.32
Bear $54.21 +37.0% $4.55 × 12x P/E
Fair $67.77 +71.3% $4.55 × 16x P/E
Bull $81.32 +105.6% $4.55 × 19x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.77 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples