LPG
Dorian LPG Ltd.
$58.15
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.0% below fair value
You pay
$58.15
Bear
$56.76
Fair
$70.96
Bull
$85.15
Bear
$56.76
-2.4%
$4.55 × 12x P/E
Fair
$70.96
+22.0%
$4.55 × 16x P/E
Bull
$85.15
+46.4%
$4.55 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.6x
4.55$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.55, the base-case value is $70.96 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples