KW
Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc.
$10.92
Stable Earnings Power
60%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 67.0% above fair value
You pay
$10.92
Bear
$5.23
Fair
$6.54
Bull
$7.85
Bear
$5.23
-52.1%
$0.44 × 12x P/E
Fair
$6.54
-40.1%
$0.44 × 15x P/E
Bull
$7.85
-28.1%
$0.44 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.44$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.0x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.44, the base-case value is $6.54 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 1353%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 1600% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples