ILMN
Illumina, Inc.
$219.19
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 168.1% above fair value
You pay
$219.19
Bear
$65.40
Fair
$81.75
Bull
$98.10
Bear
$65.40
-70.2%
$5.45 × 12x P/E
Fair
$81.75
-62.7%
$5.45 × 15x P/E
Bull
$98.10
-55.2%
$5.45 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
5.45$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
40.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (50 analysts)
$204.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.45, the base-case value is $81.75 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $204.50 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples