ILMN
Illumina, Inc.
$190.05
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 74.5% above fair value
You pay
$190.05
Bear
$87.11
Fair
$108.89
Bull
$130.68
Bear
$87.11
-54.2%
$5.56 × 12x P/E
Fair
$108.89
-42.7%
$5.56 × 15x P/E
Bull
$130.68
-31.2%
$5.56 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
34.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $156.27 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $108.89 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $156.27 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples