ILMN
Illumina, Inc.
$144.41
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 35.2% above fair value
You pay
$144.41
Bear
$85.46
Fair
$106.84
Bull
$128.21
Bear
$85.46
-40.8%
$5.56 × 12x P/E
Fair
$106.84
-26.0%
$5.56 × 15x P/E
Bull
$128.21
-11.2%
$5.56 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.40 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $106.84 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $150.40 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples