ILMN
Illumina, Inc.
$262.66
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 221.3% above fair value
You pay
$262.66
Bear
$65.40
Fair
$81.75
Bull
$98.10
Bear
$65.40
-75.1%
$5.45 × 12x P/E
Fair
$81.75
-68.9%
$5.45 × 15x P/E
Bull
$98.10
-62.7%
$5.45 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
5.45$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
48.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (50 analysts)
$250.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.45, the base-case value is $81.75 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $250.50 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples